Retail
Canadian retail shows resilience in Spring 2026 despite a divided economy
July 03, 2026
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Retail Council of Canada (RCC), in partnership with Moneris Data Services, provides timely credit and debit spending data and consumer insights to help retailers better understand how Canadians are spending—nationally and provincially.
Retail Council of Canada (RCC) draws on a quarterly survey of executives from mid‑ to large‑sized retailers across Canada to provide a directional “retail pulse.” The survey is not statistically representative and excludes gas, motor vehicle, and grocery sectors.
Below is an excerpt from the report covering March 2026 through May 2026.
Key Insights:
Retail Sales and Margins
- Many retailers told us it was a good spring, with 63% reporting sales going up in March-May compared with last year. However, colder-than-normal temperatures across Canada held back seasonal sales through March and much of April.
- So far in 2026, 69% of retailers have posted equal or improved numbers year-to-date compared with 2025, and 58% have met plan.
- While some numbers were quite strong on the upper end, the miss for most retailers was not so significant that there wasn't an opportunity to make the budget for 2026.
Consumer Behaviour and Spending Trends
- Fewer visits, stronger intent: Store traffic remained soft year over year, with 53% of retailers reporting a decline. But those shoppers who did visit were more intentional, with 89% of retailers reporting flat or higher conversion rates.
- This points to growth by basket, not footfall. Some retailers are seeing a durable lift as COVID-era replacement cycles begin, although big-ticket purchases remain deferred.
- Navigating the new path to purchase: Online, the pattern is similar: web traffic was mixed, but 85% of retailers reported stronger conversion. Retailers report their teams working hard to understand the changing traffic, sales, and discovery dynamics driven by AI changes to Google and the AI platforms themselves.
- A mall divide: As reported in Retail Insider, based on ICSC data, A-class malls continue to outperform, with Yorkdale reaching $2,368 per square foot in sales, while many lower-tier centres struggle to reach $700. For these lower-tier malls, it is also getting more difficult to fill the empty spaces.
Regional Highlights
- Ontario: 2026 also marked the first time Ontario permitted retail stores to open on statutory holiday Mondays (Victoria Day and Family Day).
- However, the impact was negligible: retailers reported little incremental sales, attributing the muted response to last minute regulatory changes and deeply ingrained consumer habits around those holidays.
- British Columbia: With gas prices already well above the national norm, a 23% year-over-year increase is a headwind that's hard to ignore.
- Prairies and Alberta: Gas prices increased (ironically) by some of the highest percentages in the nation, up 28%.
- That being said, higher global energy rates Western Canadian Select increased by 60% year-over-year, which, if sustained, could contribute as much as a $60 billion windfall to the Alberta economy, creating a significant retail tailwind for the balance of 2026 and beyond.
Retailer Sentiment: Resilience in a more uneven economy
Retailers enter the balance of 2026 with a measured but real sense of confidence. That confidence is not naïve. It has been earned through the disruption of the COVID years, when retailers were forced to become more agile, more technologically capable, and more resilient under pressure.
About Retail Council of Canada
Retail is Canada’s largest private-sector employer with over 2 million Canadians working in our industry. Retail Council of Canada (RCC) is a not-for-profit industry-funded association that represents small, medium, and large retail businesses in every community across the country. As the Voice of Retail™ in Canada, RCC proudly represents more than 45,000 storefronts in all retail formats, including department, grocery, specialty, discount, independent retailers, and online merchants.
Interested in an RCC membership? Please visit here or contact [email protected] for more information.
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